Sunday, November 29, 2009

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Trend Forecast: The College Bubble Will Burst

With college now being a “right” and the government dishing out loans to cover all the costs, we see the college degree become irrelevant in a new America. We are going see a commercial real estate collapse of the college establishment nationwide. Does the cost of college really out weight the benefit? The answer to that question is NO, one thousand times over. Here is why:

Those in college at this moment are utterly throwing precious time and taking very serious risks incurring massive debt. Your degree will not be worth the paper it is printed on in the very near future, prepare to accept any job you have the opportunity for. Most will be working the equivalent as a gas station attendant. Forecasts follow:

A few items must be examined to bring this forecast into view; therefore I simply look no further than current events. Here are just a few.
* Average tuition at four-year public colleges in the U.S. climbed 6.5 percent, or $429, to $7,020 this fall as schools apologetically passed on much of their own financial problems, according to an annual report from the College Board, released Tuesday. At private colleges, tuition rose 4.4 percent, or $1,096, to $26,273. (Huffington Post Oct 2009)

*Since 2004 tuition and fees have risen by up to 20% (Time Magazine)

*Because of a budget in peril, UCLA inflated college costs by 32% in November of 2009 (AP)

* College tuition has increased by more than three times the rate of inflation for the last 20 years, despite U.S. wages flat-lining since 2000. (Forbes Magazine)
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I simply can say once again that current trends form future events. We are once again witnessing the failure of Government involvement in the market place. Despite the best intentions, Government intervention distorts free market principles and creates zero incentive for businesses to lower costs or modify services.

I would like to return to the example of UCLA, who recently inflated tuition by 32%. The relationship between the increases in Government subsidy to the increase in College cost has been positively correlated since Gov initial intervention.
When colleges choose to inflate their prices, so too will the government raise reimbursement to offset the cost per student.

The straw man argument typical consists of “Well, if Government didn’t provide loans, no one would be able to afford college”. Again, we simply fall back to the free market model to demonstrate the fallacy in that claim. For if the government were to exit the student aid market, enrollment would fall through the floor. Students who were unable to attend college in the first place, without Government aid, would not enroll forcing pressure on the Universities to bring down costs to meet demand.

Another straw man argument typically consists of “Well, so what? I am paying X amount out of pocket now, so even if the Gov were to exit the market I would still be paying the same x amount”. That also, is a fallacy and statistically untrue.

• The tuition prices have risen even faster than recent and significant increases in federal grants and education tax breaks, the College Board calculates. That means the net out-of-pocket costs of a year at college rose several hundred dollars in 2009, while families struggled through a recession. (US News and World Report)

The free market would also increase the quality of education. With unlimited room for fiscal expansion, Universities have no incentive to pump capital into increasing educational standards. This could include: Teacher Pension Elimination, Reward by result, Textbook and equipment standards increase. Many Universities selfishly will use extra revenue to beauty up the campus or bloat teacher salaries (without the force of incentive).

Now, let’s just get to the meat.

Fiscal Forecasts Before the Burst

*Many students today must undertake massive debt in order to pay for the cost of their college education. We will continue to see an increase in the amount of debt a student must incur, as colleges continue to inflate their costs and the Government expands its role in the loans market.

*The average student enrolling in college starting in the year 2012, will accumulate debt so massive that he or she will not be able to afford in a lifetime! Yes, that is correct.

*Despite the increase in the cost of attending college, enrollment will continue to skyrocket in the short-term and then fall of a cliff by 2015.

*Every college in the nation will continue to inflate prices at a significant rate in the coming years as personal revenue falls. Because fewer will be able to afford costs, pressure will be put on the Government to step in to fill the void, which they will CERTAINLY do without any hesitation.

*We are going to see the collapse of private universities nationwide along with commercial real estate. The only private Universities with a bullish future are the Ivy Leagues for the elite only.

*Private Universities rely much more heavily on private funding than do their public counterpart. As wage disparity increases, real income falls, the standard of living and purchasing power decreases… So too will the investment revenue. Unable to compete with a Public (Government) University that prints money, private Universities will be forced to raise costs to unsustainable price levels. Many private Universities will close doors forever nationwide!


One must also not ignore the social implications the college bubble will have in our society. The government has once again broken the firewalls of the Constitution to make attending college a “right”. One must question the weight a college degree will have in a future job market. Will the college degree hold the stature a high school degree once held? We must also return to the fundamental question, “Does the cost of college really out weight the benefit?”

Social Forecasts

*By the year 2015, college graduates will be competing for what today are considered “Blue Collar Jobs”. (Plumbing, Construction, Public Service, Factory etc)

*By the year 2012, unemployment will be near Great Depression levels (22-25%). All things equal, a college student will compete for the same job against 50 other applicants. (50 to 1 employment ratio).

*By 2015, Community College enrollment will INCREASE by at least 800%

*By 2015, Public University enrollment will decrease by at least 200%

*By 2015, Private University Enrollment will decrease by at least 350%

*By 2015, the market will be over saturated with prospects holding liberal arts degrees. A college degree will equal the caliber of today’s high school degree.


When all FORCES are realized (A Summary) The bubble will Burst

The long term fiscal health of the United States receives a grade of an F-^1,000,000 (to the one-millionth power). We are in beginning stages of our greatest depression. Soon unemployment rates will top Great Depression level highs of 25% . Jobs currently lost are never returning. We are at the perspicuous of a currency crisis that will happen sometime in the very near future; this will change the structural status of the United States for the long-term. (Please read my last column on an in-depth analysis on this specific issue). During the next decade we are going to see the University and the institution of College virtually extinct. A few will remain in the long-run, but most will not attend other than the very wealthy elite.

Instead of a liberal arts curriculum, young people nation wide will learn marketable skills such as farming/agriculture, animal raising, craft (Basket Weaving, Sewing), steelwork, construction. Amongst other things. This will be called the Second Industrial Revolution, as America’s future economy will depend heavily on export with the chief export being agricultural goods.

We are going to see a new establishment of trade schools nationwide. These “schools” will specialize in the marketable skill areas mentioned above. Those who choose to diversify their skill portfolio will have the greatest employment opportunity as we see a shift from the (PhD, MS, MBA, BA, etc) to (Intensive Pastoral Farming, Shifting Cultivation, Dairy Farming, Plantation or Tree Farming, Woodcraft and interior construction, etc)

Personal Health management will also be a big trend in the coming years as the medical establishment erodes and drastic rationing takes foot. We are going to see the return of home doctor visits and a significant increase in hospice type care. The nursing field will increase dramatically as the market will demand such an increase. Nutritional, natural herbalist and other fields of the sort will also take a strong foothold as the level of access to the advanced pharmacology we enjoy today, ceases to exist.

That is my forecast
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It's Out! DOLLAR BUBBLE: THE DOCUMENTARY

Monday, November 23, 2009

Obama's Nice Guy Act Gets Him Nowhere on the World Stage

Grettings: Big Brother Now on FB!

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(LaCrosse Tribune)
University of Wisconsin-La Crosse student Adam Bauer has nearly 400 friends on Facebook. He got an offer for a new one about a month ago... Only to find...

Who’s running Hell while Ben Bernanke & Timothy Geithner Are Busy Unleashing It On Earth?

Well leave your fears at the door because soon both Bernanke and Geither will return to their former jobs, but this time they will not be alone! This time they will be joined by the pretty paper they violated by means of mortal sin on Earth. Pretty paper? Yeah, you know those crisp greenies most of you carry everyday with pictures of Old Men who supposedly had something to do with creating this country we live in. The dollar, that’s what it is called. Oh, you say that is money? News to me!

Who ever thought one could successful con a system where one has the ability to trade pretty paper, backed by nothing, for real goods of value? Wow! Certainly would sound like a utopian dream to the old men on those bills.

Yeah, go ahead. Take a notebook from your school bag, rip out a sheet, write a magic number then color the rest a shade of green. What? What is the difference? Can anyone tell me?
What happened to those “Green Shoots”? I thought that was part of our recovery? BTW, I looked up recovery the other day. The definition I read was “The return of a missing or stolen item”, but you tell me Job-Less Recovery. Hmm. Yeah, I still don’t have my job I lost in early 2008. More than half my friends are there with me still worrying about putting food on the table, filling their cars with gas and heating their homes for the cold of this winter. Wondering why those essentials continue to increase in cost and require more of those dollars than they did only a few years prior.

I noticed the dollar index is down and the value of my few remaining dollars continues to fall through the floor. Since a recovery is defined as “The return of a stolen good”, when is Mr. Geither or Mr. Bernanke going to return that to me? After all both gentlemen, repeatedly promise “They have saved us from a greater crisis”.

I have these shiny yellow coins. Oh yeah, gold it’s called. The very commodity Pirates used to devote their lives sinking ships and hunting on Islands for. In recent times, my grandpa told me he was able to trade in his crispy dollars for this thing called gold. Why can’t I do that anymore, why was the stolen from me? You know, I drive down my local streets, and yes, see fewer small businesses than I did a year prior. But there are a few new stores. Actually, there are several of them claiming that they will give me “Dollars for Gold”. Sounds cool! After, who wants to… Oh wait. Yeah, that’s right.

So I have reached the conclusion that maybe I shouldn’t worry about that paper anymore. Certainly would make you LIBS happy that I have respect for our rainforests, no? Hey, maybe you should GO FOR THAT GOLD too! People would rather have that than any of my other goods. Maybe I did learn something in public schooling, “the more people want something, the more they are willing to give ‘it’ up to attain ‘that’ something”.

Hmm. Well, maybe you can sort through my thoughts. Just brain storming, nothing too serious.

Time to learn Chinese!

Are there any doubters that remain still thinking the US has a long-term sustainability and upward growth momemnt? Anyone still really believe the U.S.A will remain the economic superpower it has enjoyed the last century? Aren't we now all on the same page knowing that power and influence are moving East? Well, it is time to learn the next English- Chinese. Legendary investor Jim Rogers has voted with his feet and moved to Asia requiring his young girls to grow up speaking both Mandarin-Chinese and English.

To get your feet wet breaking the ice to the language, here is a great youtube videos series we recommending subscribing. BONUS: Nothing like having a good looking instructor to hold your hand through the process!



Subscribe here: http://www.youtube.com/user/sloppycheng

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Constitutional Concerns

As these past couple months have gone by, I have become quite saddened that the design of the Constitution is failing the American people. It would seem that legislation can pass through the government far too easily. This is a problem that was semi-protected against by the original Constitution, but has since lost that firewall by a certain Amendment.

First of all, the health care bill passed the House of Representatives by a narrow margin of just a couple votes. It is astounding to me that a bill can pass the House with just a simple majority. Ground shaking legislation that affects every person in the United States can pass the House of Representatives if just one more person votes for the bill. I understand that there are other checks such as the Senate, Executive Branch, and Judiciary, but those checks just as easily may represent a simple majority. I believe a change needs to be made that would require 2/3 votes for a bill in the House. I believe this is necessary, because if one party (R or D) has just enough majority to pass a bill, and no other check decides to veto it, sometimes a bill is so forceful that it has no chance of being repealed. We can see several examples today: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Nearly all conservatives agree that these Acts were completely unconstitutional, but they would never vote to repeal them, because the users of those bills had already invested into the plans and were now living and depending on them. A 2/3 majority would provide overwhelming support that showed the a very substantial part of the population is in favor of such monumental decisions.

Secondly, adjustments need to be made to the Senate. As I have stated in previous columns, the 17th Amendment destroyed protections of states' rights and representation, by giving Senate electoral power to the people as opposed to state legislature. With this change, the same potentially uninformed individuals who elected Representatives now elected Senators. With how the electoral process for the Senate used to be, the state legislature would be able to elect individuals who would protect their interests. The other change that needs to be made to the Senate is term limits. There are far too many "career politicians." Senator Byrd was recently congratulated for his 9th consecutive term! The best politician is a person who doesn't want to be involved in politics. Another "career politician", Chris Dodd of Connecticut, has served many consecutive terms. Luckily a very qualified economical candidate is running against him in the upcoming election-Peter Schiff. With term limits, we can avoid the career politicians and therefore have a much less corrupt government that is interested in protecting the freedom of the people.

Finally a similar suggestion is term limits for Supreme Court Justices. It is amazing that such a small select few can have the amount of power bestowed upon them that they do. Supreme Court Justices serve for life and are appointed by the President (with Senate approval). These justices have a lasting impact on all of us. They are able to determine what legislative pieces are constitutional and unconstitutional. The New Deal was repeatedly turned down by the Supreme Court for being unconstitutional. It gave the federal government extraordinary power over people. FDR then proceeded to stack the court with liberal justices that would approve of the New Deal and we have been paying higher taxes to an expansive government ever since. With term limits, we would not have to worry about the stacking of justices of one political party or the other.

While I am very opposed to any Constitutional changes for the most part, I feel these changes are necessary to prevent change in the form of big government. It just takes one voting cycle of uninformed individuals (led astray by the media) to elect enough representatives of a political party, passing legislation that opposes the Constitution. As we are seeing before us today and have seen in the past, liberty given away is rarely regained.

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Soros Group Targets Bachmann

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(Infowars)
A district of criminals-based “watchdog” group is calling for a House probe of Bachmann because her website mentioned the tea party rally in Washington.

Obama: Too Much Debt could Fuel Double-dip Recession

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(Reuters)

President Barack Obama gave his sternest warning yet about the need to contain rising U.S. deficits, saying on Wednesday that if government debt were to pile up too much, it could lead to a double-dip recession.



Rush Limbaugh Speaks with Sarah Palin



Part 2

Monday, November 16, 2009

U.S. Troops Battle Both Taliban and Their Own Rules

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(Washington Times)
"It's a framework to ensure cultural sensitivity in planning and executing operations"
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UK: Elderly and Disabled Could Be 'Forced to Commit Suicide' Under Changes to Rules

Keir Starmer: Director of Public Prosecutions

(UK Telegraph)
Increasing numbers of elderly and infirm people will be pressured into killing themselves under changes to assisted suicide rules, it has been claimed.
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New Podcast 11/16

New Podcast available! Subscribe below. Become a friend on FB (Page link on right column). Please invite others to "Become Fans" on FB. Real news with no spin on your FB updates!
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Federal Oversight of Subways Proposed

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(Washington Post)
The Obama administration will propose that the federal government take over safety regulation of the nation's subway and light-rail systems, responding to what it says is haphazard and ineffective oversight by state agencies.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Britian to implement "Carbon Allowence"?

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(UK Telegraph)
Could this Orwellian practice find its way into the US? What is the next step for the communistic globalists?

Obama Admin Plans to Purge Republicans From the Civil Service

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(Red State)

Remember how the Democrats reacted when the Bush Administration started replacing U.S. Attorneys? At least they were actually political appointees employed at the will and whim of the President.


30 Million Illegals to Become Legal

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(The Washington Times)
"Big Sis" Janet Napolitano said Friday that the federal government has done its work and now it's time for Congress to pass a broad bill to legalize illegal immigrants.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Getting To Know Obama's Mad Scientist

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(Eco Science)
Forced abortions. Mass sterilization. A "Planetary Regime" with the power of life and death over American citizens.

As U.S. Dollar Dissolves, Gold Soars!

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(Bloomberg)

Stocks rose, sending the benchmark index for emerging markets to its biggest six-day rally since July, and commodities gained after China’s industrial production and Japan’s machinery orders climbed. Gold advanced to a record.


Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Judge Napolitano : Health Care Bill Will Destroy American Liberty!

Lieberman Pelosi Health Bill will "Break America"

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(Washington AP)
Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut, said that "if the public option plan is in there, as a matter of conscience, I will not allow this bill to come to a final vote because I believe the debt can break America and send us into a recession that's worse than the one we're fighting our way out of today."

The End of America Happens in the Middle of the Night

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(Freeman Institute)
While normal everyday oblivious Americans were preparing their beds to sleep Saturday night their elected officials quietly passed H.R. 3962, the Affordable Health Care for America Act. Indeed, the passage of this act deals one of the final death blows to the Constitution and with it our liberties.

House Passes Heatlh Bill on Razor-close Vote

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(Brietbart)

In a victory for President Barack Obama, the Democratic-controlled House narrowly passed landmark health care legislation Saturday night to expand coverage to tens of millions who lack it and place tough new restrictions on the insurance industry.


Sarah Palin on Pelosi Care Passage

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(Sarah Palin FB)
The Pelosi Bill Was Rammed Through on Saturday, But Sunday’s Coming...

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Rush Limbaugh Fox News Sunday



Part 2 and Part 3